US Peaks on cases but not yet fatalities

Julian Fry
3 min readJan 30, 2022


The global march of Omicron is still going — check out the case numbers reported on the WHO website.

2022 is showing a truly unprecedented level of cases. World-wide over 22 million cases recorded in the week running up to Jan 17th. Thankfully the fatality curve has not followed suit.

The US has peaked for cases — but not yet fatalities

Fatalities are now 7.5 per million per day — which is over 2,300 deaths per day on average.

This is the monthly data to 28th Jan. Looking at the trend expect around 57,000 deaths in January — bringing this to be the highest in 11 months. Expect cases to just about reach 20 million cases in January!

10 states lead the highest fatalities tables — all exceeding 10 fatalities per million per day. My home state of TN is #8.

TN certainly has not peaked yet with respect to cases

So expect no relief on fatalities in short order

Little wonder that TN ICU capacity is around 6%

North Eastern States look to have well peaked for cases

But fatalities still too high — all at around 10 per million per day

Putting that in perspective — fatalities in January are the highest in 11 months. It is certainly 4th highest month for fatalities since inception — and it’s in with a shot of being the 3rd highest by month end. Almost 5,000 deaths this month alone.

We are still in this. February should bring significant relief to the North Eastern states. For other states — look for February to bring further challenges with respect to fatalities and hospital capacity.

Originally published at on January 30, 2022.



Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.