US cases are undeniably on the rise again — no doubt due to the colder weather and holiday driven socializing.
The US is currently recording approximately 120,000 new cases and 1,255 fatalities per day — and I don’t see that coming down significantly over this holiday period.
It basically the same story in the UK (albeit with lower levels of fatalities)
Germany is also on a major upswing — driven by its closer proximity to the Eastern Europe spread we noted in earlier blogs
By contrast Southern Hemisphere countries are mostly doing well
What’s driving the US?
Its likely mainly Delta — and not Omicron yet. Here’s the highest areas of new cases per capita. Florida — I’ll be there for Xmas! Notice both Maine and NY have very high levels of cases.
Fatalities are mostly in line with this trend. Oregon has likely peaked (on Delta) given the rate of new cases.
Lets deep dive into Michigan — which shows a very high case rate and double digit fatality rate. Basically gradual and persistent rises since August.
New York is having a faster increase in cases and fatalities — rightly prompting the governor to take action.
Florida is doing the reverse. Their most recent peak was in mid-September — which we’d assume would be a wake up call for many to get vaccinated.
Kentucky unfortunately had record setting tornados to contend with on top of a troubling set of COVID results. Currently about the same level of per capital fatalities as Michigan.