Tennessee Covid Update: Monthly Fatalities on the rise

A friend of mine asked me how Tennessee is doing with COVID. Here’s the chart. There’s no doubt there has been a steadily increasing number of fatalities per month since the inception of COVID — see red line in the chart.

While the number of cases each month has moved up and down — there’s no denying the persisent upward trend in monthly fatalities. The only exception to the persistent monthly rise in deaths was May — and this was likely after the impact of the state wide lock downs.

In terms of per capita numbers (to make an easy comparison with other states) — TN is currently about 500 new cases per million per day (rank #29).

Fatalities are currently about 8 per million per day — which ranks #12 in the nation.

One of the reasons behind the persistent increase in deaths may be constraints in ICU hospital capacity. Its widely reported that ICU capacity across the state is in single percentage digits — 6% according to this new source: https://www.newschannel5.com/news/only-6-of-middle-tennessees-covid-19-icu-beds-remain

Since inception — TN has had 4x as many deaths as a typical flu season. Up until now TN has done a pretty reasonable job compared to the national average. TN ranks #27 on the number of fatalities per million residents since inception. But the new data, and constraints on hospital capacity — point to a concerning outlook.

Davidson County

Davidson county is also experiencing an increase in fatalities — well over 50% increase over the prior month. Thankfully new cases are not yet at the peak of the summer (unlike the situation for the broader TN) — likely due to good management by the Mayor of Nashville — Mr John Cooper.

Hospitalizations are at a record high in Davidson county. See this chart from the Nashville covid data source. There are 422 people in hospital currently with COVID. Previous peak was 220 on July 22nd.

Conclusion: TN has been better than the average — but hospital capacity concerns and increasing cases point to a poor short term outlook. Time for more action.

Originally published at http://jf-insights.com on November 28, 2020.