Success in the South — but Northern US getting hit hard. It ain’t over yet.

Julian Fry
4 min readNov 26, 2021

A surprising picture emerges from the data today: Notice how most of the Southern states have low levels of new covid cases.

And compare this with the same view from end August 2021.

The deep red of the south we see at end August has been completely eliminated today. Take a look at the dramatic reduction for Florida. From almost 1000 new cases per million per day at the end of August to just 64 new cases per million per day today.


Fatalities today have started to shift away from Southern States. Missouri, Kentucky and Montanta are experiencing the highest per capita levels of fatalities.

Here’s the same picture from end August:

Again notice the concentration in the Southern States. Florida substantially improved.

Overall US Trend

The impact of cases away from the south did result in some reduction of cases and fatalities through late October. However there has been a noticeable uptick since December of both cases and fatalities.

Results by State — League Tables

Michigan, Minnesotta and New Hampshire are recordng very high levels of new cases.


The data for Missouri looks like a sharp spike typically due to a correction in the data (in this an upward revision in the fatality numbers)

Kentucky has a serious high fatality rate — and I would be concerned about hospital capacity if I lived there. This is a terrible position to be in during the holiday period.

Tennessee seems to have pulled the case numbers down significantly — but overall fatalities are still high at 3.7 per million per day.

Michigan is in a state of concern with a persistent upward trend in both cases and fatalities

Pennsylvania shows a similar, concerning, trend

What can you say about North Dakota…. very small population so hard to compare directly with other states — but a very different position since August this year. Basically within a 2 month period — what looked like a controlled position — has changed into high levels of cases and fatalities.


With many northern states showing a severe uptick in cases and fatalities on the early start to the holiday season this does not present a positive picture for the next 2 months.

The rapid uptick in many states — from being well controlled in early August to the current levels shows not only how quickly COVID can return to high levels — but must surely be correlated with return to school.

As corporations plan for return to office — they will need to think carefully about their potential impact on the COVID — which can of course be mitigated by vaccination policies.

This COVID thing is almost hitting 2 years — and it aint over yet

Originally published at on November 26, 2021.



Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.