Peru — the worst impacted country in the world for COVID — shows sustained improvement

Some good news for Peru

Peru leads the world in reported deaths per capita. As you can see from the table below — almost 2x the number of the second country in the table. Thats a total of almost 200,000 deaths on a population of 32 million people

Improving trend

Current fatalities are now just 1.2 per million per day. The best result in many months.

A similar story for Brazil

Improvement — but 3 fatalities per million per day is still too high

The Driver: Vaccinations — NOT herd immunity

The chart below shows steady progress in a rollout of vaccinations commencing around May 2021. Levels are still relatively low: as of Sept 4th 26% of the population are fully vaccinated. Seems like the case curve started to fall sustainably in June — which fits the profile of the vaccination curve with 1 month lag — as we would expect.

Is herd immunity a driver? Unlikely. Almost 2m people have been diagnosed and presumed recovered from COVID — which is 6% of the population. Assume that’s 2 to 5x underreported — that still shows this population is no way near the level of exposure to generate herd immunity.

Well done Peru in clearly targetting potential vulnerable populations with your vaccine rollout.

Originally published at http://jf-insights.com on September 8, 2021.