It looks like stock chart but its not

This kind of chart — a generally upward sloping chart with some peaks, then troughs — only to be passed by another upswing is usually what we associate with a stock market graph. Problem here — its a COVID chart.

Current estimate of contagious — taking new cases over the past 2 weeks is at least 1 million people (likely much more due to asymptomatic cases). The number of people coping with covid (diagnosed in last 30 days) is close to 1.9 million.

Still not convinced its bad — take a look at the chart below showing monthly totals. October wss much higher than August and September. We’re back to the levels experienced over the summer. Only there’s much less desire to contain it this time. COVID fatigue seems to have set in — across the country.

Infections continue to surge in North & South Dakota:

Not surprisingly leading to country leading levels of fatalities in those states:

Even my home state of TN is recording a spike in fatalities.

Recall that the typical seasonal flu cycle kills about 170 people per million per year. Now take a look at the numbers across the country since inception.

The current combination of lax approach, combined with COVID fatigue is fueling this rise in cases and fatalities across the country. While the overall US death rate hasn’t shown a marked increase yet to the current surge — the broad spread of cases across the country looks set to put a new level of challenge on the health care systems. There are 290 large counties (>100k residents) who have elevated levels of COVID new cases.

Here’s my estimate of where basic hospital capacity looks the most challenged — see the top 10 states in the list below:

This is the time for us all to take our own protection seriously. Don’t let COVID fatigue get the better of you!

Originally published at http://jf-insights.com on November 3, 2020.

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Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.