France shows that tough decisions pay off, US need to make some

Julian Fry
3 min readJan 15, 2021


Some of my earlier blogs have given credit to France for taking the tought decisions to implement curfews to control the rise of COVID. Well that seems to have paid off. Take a look at some of these charts contrasting the COVID incidence in France with some other countries.


From a peak of 841 cases per million per day — its currently running at 274. About the same level as mid October. Note — no spike in cases over Christmas and New Year.

In fact the number of cases in the month of December was less than half of those of November. That’s a great achievement.


The UK is now hitting the same peak that France experienced. Around 900 cases per million per day. The government flip flop on restrictions over Christmas and the presence of a new strain of COVID-19 led to rapid increase in cases. Notice how fatalities are rising and likely have not peaked. Still at least the government took some action. Total cases in December were 30% higher than the previous month.


Lets look at the US — with, in my view, a complete absence of political leadership from the top on how to handle the holiday season. This is what we’ve got.

Isn’t it interesting that all countries are heading to the same range of values. Approximately 800 cases per million per day.

Total US cases in December were approximately 50% higher than those of November. Thats not surprising given the high volume of travel recorded around the holidays.

Hard to read in the chart below — but in the first 13 days of January we have recorded over 3 million new COVID cases. If this trend continues, the US will have a record 7m new cases in January.

Originally published at on January 15, 2021.



Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.