Florida Declares COVID Victory Too Soon

Cases per capita

But lets see that in terms of cases per million — and the current rate is at about 111 new cases per million per day. A little lower than the US average — but still behind what has become an internationally acceptable level. Stated differently — just being in line with the US average isn’t good enough.

Deaths per Capita

Florida is doing less well here. Deaths lag cases — so we can see from the 1st chart that the peak deaths occured in August (lagging peak cases by 1 month from July). As of Sept 27–2,845 people died from COVID in the month.

National Comparisons

As I mentioned above, declaring victory when the state has reached the US average isn’t the right standard. The US is so divergent in the burden of COVID by state that average simply isn’t the right way to look at what a ‘good’ level of COVID looks like.

There is a pretty simple CAUSE and EFFECT loop that is playing out

We have seen time and time again that reopening too quickly leads to an upsurge in cases, and an upsurge in deaths. The Arizona example actually shows that too. The rapid reopening around Memorial Day is directly responsible for over 180,000 cases and 4,000 deaths. Even the current level in Arizona is only just about the same level as Memorial day.

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Julian Fry

Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.