Eastern Europe and the UK — feeling the Delta pinch

Julian Fry
3 min readOct 18, 2021

A quick look at the global numbers shows the UK and Eastern Europe feeling the surge of Delta cases.

Latvia is the highest — with over 800 cases per million per day

Not surprisingly this is translating into high current fatality levels in those countries. Romania and Bulgaria are leading the world with over 10 fatalities per day per million.


Romania is on pace for its deadliest month of covid cases. Already over 4,000 people have died this month. Looks like most of this surge took place from mid-September. The lagged fatality rate (average fatalities now divided by cases 1 month prior) here is 12% — which means that cases are very likely significantly under-reported.


Bulgaria’s case growth started late August and in still gaining momentum

So far at least — fatalities seem unlikely to exceed past peaks of December 2020 and April 2021 — but its very easy to see from the fatality curve that this is very definitely a 3rd wave for Bulgaria. The lagged fatality rate for Bulgaira is 5.6%. Still very high and again likely means cases are under reported.


The UK isn’t bringing case numbers down quickly enough — although the most recently fatality data (with 1 month lag from cases) is at 0.34%. (we’ll call this the ‘Lagged Fatality Rate’). Translation — fatalities are relatively well controlled.


The US is bringing cases down — albeit slowly. Fatalities are much higher than the UK — probably driven still by the high incidence of unvaccinated people. The lagged fatality rate in the US is 1% — about 3 times higher than the UK.

Currrently it looks like US fatality numbers should be less in October than in September — but still around 40,000.

Originally published at http://jf-insights.com on October 18, 2021.



Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.