Does Peloton’s stock performance mark the end of COVID in the US? Probably. Peloton should eye Eastern Europe.

Peloton stock took a massive hit this week, continuing a downward trend over the last 3 months. People want to get back to regular gyms it seems. Notice the current level of $55 versus 52 week high of $171.

Why the good news on covid?

Answer — the next COVID pill — for treating patients shortly after detecting COVID symptoms is looking very promising. See below from today’s Morning Brew:

Pfizer released clinical trial data for its Covid-19 pill, and it was a report card any helicopter parent would be proud of: The treatment reduced hospitalizations and deaths in the most vulnerable patients by 89%, a result so good Pfizer halted clinical trials early.

Antiviral pills like Pfizer’s and Merck’s (which was just granted authorization in the UK) are crucial tools in the fight to turn Covid-19 from a pandemic to an endemic virus. When taken at home within days of discovering Covid symptoms, these pills are much more accessible than current treatments, which require a visit to a medical office.

Why it matters: We know you’ve been hearing this for a while, but this time it really is true…the end is in sight. With booster shots flowing and effective pills on their way to authorization, by January 4-the vaccination mandate deadline for large US employers-”this pandemic may well be over” in the US, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said yesterday. -NF

US trends:

All data in this analysis is to end October 2021. Per capita we can see cases have fallen significant — but not fatalities

The US still had a very large number of deaths in October — 45,000. Only 5 other months since the inception of the crisis have recorded higher death counts. More to come on that below.

Eastern Europe is still very badly hit

A view in table form — shows the top countries for new cases:

And a similar story for level of current fatalities

Many of these counties have small populations — Latvia for example is 2 million; Lithuania 3m; Georgia 5m. Lets take a look at Russia — population 146m

Russia just recorded its highest level of monthly COVID deaths since the crisis began — 31,000 deaths:

The same story plays out in the Ukraine

United Kingdom

The UK has a sharply rising case rate; but has managed to keep a lid on fatalities. Cases in October were almost exactly those in January 2021 — but look how much lower fatalities are. Jan 2021 noted 33,000 deaths; but in October — just 4,000.

While the UK performance is good — I’ll be the first to state that there is no cause for complacency. The growth of cases in the UK; and across Eastern Europe creates the opportunity for additional COVID variants to take hold.

The UK must now think very seriously about the rollout of vaccine boosters.

Success stories of the month:

Israel managed to bring down cases and fatalities — and had aggressively rolled out vaccine boosters. Deaths in October were less than half those of September.

Costa Rica also did a nice job!

Our neighbour to the north, Canada, is doing a wonderful job. How?

This is in stark contrast to our Northern most states. Alaska had its highest level of COVID deaths ever this month; Maine had its third highest.

The best of the US:

The 3 best states (or equivalent) in the US — are Washington DC; Massachusetts; Connecticut. Basically the bunch below — are doing a very good job keeping cases and fatalities down. These are shown in geographic proximity.

It won’t be the first time for the stock market to declare victory on COVID too soon — and as we have seen — there’s still much work to be done across the US; Eastern Europe; and the UK.

At this point — with new antivirals coming to the market however we finally seem to have the tool kit to address the worst effects of COVID

But we can all do a little more to stop the spread in the meantime

Originally published at http://jf-insights.com on November 8, 2021.

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I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.

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Julian Fry

Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.

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