Brazil likely to become world #1 for COVID Deaths

Julian Fry
3 min readJul 6, 2021

While the US recorded 600,000 deaths in late June / early July (depending on the source of data), what many may not realize is that Brazil has currently recorded 523,000 official COVID deaths.

Brazil COVID deaths are about 1500 per day, compared to US deaths of about 250. That means Brazil could catch up to the US in about 2 months.

Brazil has a population of 208m — which is lower than the US — so already on a per capita basis, Brazil is much higher with 2,500 deaths per million of population, versus 1,800 for the US.

The Charts

The stark difference in trajectories of the charts is down to vaccination. Brazil has fully vaccinated 13% of its population (~37% have received one dose). The US has fully vaccinated 48% (56% have received at least one dose)

Fatalities per Million

Rise of Delta & Gamma

The UK data is showing that despite widespread vaccine adoption (50% fully vaccinated; 68% at least one dose), the new Delta variant is a threat. Cases in June were almost at the same level as February and more than 4 times higher than in May. Fortunately fatalities have not risen as dramatically as cases.

Here’s a closer look at the UK and the exponential growth of Delta.

According to Yale Medicine — Brazil is dealing with a different variant — known as Gamma. This source also states that COVID Delta is 75% more contagious than the original strain of COVID.


We’ll check back in early September to report on the relative progress of Brazil and the impact of new strains around the world.

Originally published at on July 6, 2021.



Julian Fry

I’ve always been logically driven. I like to think I look at things broadly and draw observations that may not be represented by main stream media.